Who Will Fix the Future? Skilled Trades Gap Widens as Young Workers Remain Elusive

By Matt Schmitz and Lauren Leazenby

November 25, 2025

Be it political punditry, advocacy from TV celebrities known for doing dirty jobs or these-kids-today gripes yelled in the direction of a cloud in the sky, we’ve heard an awful lot in recent years about the so-called skilled-trades gap threatening a shortage of plumbers, electricians, HVAC technicians and other vital hands-on home-repair workers. But is it true? Are Gen Z job seekers joining the workforce really eschewing occupations in these well-paid positions that don’t require a four-year college degree? It is. And they are. And addressing the reasons why will be necessary if we hope to engage a generation of future fixers.

This May Also Interest You: The Skilled Trades Need Workers. So Why Still So Few Black Plumbers, Electricians and HVAC Techs?

Some estimates project just two workers entering the trades labor force for every five who retire. But judging by figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the dearth of young workers entering the skilled trades has nothing to do with a lack of opportunity.

Demand Grows, Supply Slows

“Overall employment in construction and extraction occupations is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations from 2024 to 2034,” the bureau states on its website. “About 649,300 openings are projected each year, on average, in these occupations due to employment growth and the need to replace workers who leave the occupations permanently.”

Still, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, there are some 1 million fewer workers in the construction trades than there were in 2007 during the housing boom that preceded the Great Recession, “which has contributed to project delays, rising costs, and other challenges.” According to a 2021 study by Deloitte and advocacy group the National Association of Manufacturers’ The Manufacturing Institute, the skills gap in the U.S. could result in 2.1 million unfilled jobs by 2030, at a cost of as much as $1 trillion in that year alone. Among these construction-related occupations, of course, are the contractors who continue coming to your house long after it’s built to fix your leaky pipes, faulty wiring and malfunctioning heating and cooling systems — not the types of repairs where homeowners want to find no one picking up on the other end of an emergency call.

Why’s It Waning?

It always comes down to money right? Not necessarily in this case. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the median annual wage for skilled trades as of May 2024 was $58,360, nearly 18% higher than the median annual wage for all occupations. The median income for plumbers, for example, was nearly $63,000, and over $62,000 for electricians — up to 27% higher than the median for all jobs, and despite neither job requiring education beyond high school.

“Most young adults who have yet to make up their minds on a career see very little chance they would join the trades even if the pay was high,” the National Association of Home Builders concluded in a 2017 study.

But why? According to the NAHB study, some of the top reasons given for young adults’ aversion to careers in the trades include:

The physical demands of trades work (with 48% of survey respondents saying so)
The difficulty of the work (32%)
Desire for an office-type job (26%)
Prefer a career that requires a college degree (18%)
Don’t want to work outside in the elements (17%)
Want a “new economy” job, i.e., tech, computers (14%)

In short: It’s hard, and they’d potentially rather make less money in a “white collar” job than face the physical demands of trades work. Which is unfortunate considering how, as stated in a recent Forbes article on the fertile employment ground the skilled trades present, skilled workers in these fields are poised to thrive in a challenging economy.

“Unlike many sectors, trades are largely automation-proof, requiring hands-on expertise that machines can’t replicate,” the Forbes article states.

Other Obstacles

Aging Workforce

Experienced tradespeople are retiring from roles in HVAC, plumbing, electrical work and other skilled trades, taking that experience with them. By 2030, all Baby Boomers — 73 million Americans — will be over the age of 65, putting the entire generation at retirement age. Many Boomers have worked 40-plus years in the trades, and they are now retiring without a younger cohort of tradespeople to pass their knowledge down to. In addition, the rate of young people entering the trades isn’t enough to outpace this mass retirement.

Immigration

The elephant in the room is immigration. The Joint Center for Housing Studies cites a nearly 50% slowdown of foreign-born workers entering the U.S. construction industry annually between 2010 and 2019 compared with the period spanning 2003-09. Much of that labor loss has resulted from stricter immigration policies. Speaking strictly in terms of sheer numbers, that strikes a blow to employment figures as immigrant workers comprise some 33% of the construction labor force.

Lack of Diversity

In addition, the skilled trades industry has struggled to attract and retain both women and Black workers. Black Americans represent almost 14% of the total population but just 6% of skilled tradespeople, and are on average the lowest-earning, least-promoted workers in the trades. Women are even more poorly represented. Despite being roughly half the population, women in the past decade made up just 2.4% of electricians, 1.6% of plumbers and 1.2% of HVAC technicians, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

Educational Gaps

Meanwhile, PRT Staffing, of Palm Harbor, Fla., states that the “looming crisis” is also attributable to lack of exposure and education, as many high schools have reduced or eliminated vocational training programs, limiting exposure to trade skills, as well a lack of accessible and affordable training programs for adults interested in pursuing trade careers.

Many high schools offer STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) programs to teach students the skills needed to pursue careers in these industries. But, oftentimes, these programs are aimed at college entry, not at developing vocational skills. Students who excel in STEM classes are pushed to pursue engineering degrees rather than electrical, HVAC or plumbing certifications.

But even if students have access to shop classes or STEM programs that include the trades, there may not be an adequate vocational school or training program in their area. And, beyond graduation, openings in government-funded apprenticeship programs aren’t enough to keep up with the demand for new workers.

Industry Growth

New technologies won’t implement themselves. As the world gets increasingly more electric, and there’s a push toward green energy and smarter tech, more and more workers will be needed to address the shift. The BLS estimates wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic installers will be the top two fastest-growing occupations between 2024 and 2034, expected to expand 50% and 42% respectively. Demand for electricians is expected to grow by 9% in the same time frame, which is considered “much faster than average.” The HVAC industry has an 8% expected growth rate.

Impact For Homeowners

Like it or not, the lack of people working in the skilled trades affects you.

Want to have solar panels installed? Well, you might be waiting a while, because there aren’t enough solar installers in your area, or manufacturing has slowed, leading to a shortage of the PV panels themselves.

The same thing occurs when a pipe bursts in your home. If local plumbers are in short supply, you might find yourself having to DIY a solution to keep your home from flooding, or pay an astronomical amount for a house call. And when a plumber does arrive, they may not be trained to their fullest potential, as their older mentors have retired and there are no continuing education programs available.

Solutions

The need to address this shortage is obvious, and many organizations are taking the initiative to curb these systemic factors:.

‘Bring Back Shop Class’

In partnership with the Shop Class Foundation, power tool manufacturer Metabo HPT has started the “Bring Back Shop Class” campaign, which is designed to put hands-on learning back into schools. The idea is to get kids excited about careers in the trades by showing them the path to success.

ACE Mentor Program

The skills gap between retiring tradespeople and incoming students is a canyon of on-the-job knowledge that technical training alone cannot address. The ACE Mentor Program is a free after-school program that connects high school students with experts in the architecture, design, construction and engineering industries. They provide scholarships, internships and mentorship to students hoping to build careers in these industries.

Corporate Training Programs

One barrier to starting a career in the trades is the cost of vocational school. Toyota’s T-TEN earn-while-you-learn program creates a jumpstart for those looking to enter the automotive industry without accruing debt. Similarly, apprenticeships through the United Association — a union of plumbers, HVAC technicians and other service professionals — include thousands of hours of paid on-the-job training. Rheem, a water heater and HVAC equipment manufacturer, offers free continued education by master plumbers for established plumbers through their Plumber 2 Plumber program.

The AI Future

It’s possible that some skilled tradespeople will be replaced by artificial intelligence, smart technology and advanced robots in the future. But this doesn’t negate the need for skilled tradespeople; now, training may involve learning how to operate this new tech.

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